Methodology & sources
How every number on this site is produced. Data last built .
Principles
- Every public number traces to a source, a method and an update time.
- Counters are statistical models, not registers of deaths.
- Uncertainty is shown, not hidden: ranges where sources disagree, "No reliable estimate" where there is none.
- The site is static: no database, no tracking, no accounts. Personal and non-commercial.
The counters
The UN World Population Prospects (WPP) 2024 gives annual totals: population on 1 January, births and deaths per calendar year. Estimates run to 2023; later years are the medium-variant projection. The counters spread each annual total evenly over the seconds of the year (366 days in a leap year).
population(t) = P₀ + (P₁ − P₀) × (t − t₀) / S
deaths this year(t) = D × (t − t₀) / S
births or deaths today(t) = rate × (t − max(local midnight, t₀))
t₀ = 1 January 00:00 UTC; S = seconds in the year; P₀, P₁ = UN population on 1 January this year and next; D = UN deaths this year.
For 2026: P₀ = 8,266,245,291, P₁ = 8,335,111,500, births = 132,503,469 (4.2017 per second), deaths = 63,637,314 (2.0179 per second). Status: PROJECTED.
- Time rules. The annual base switches at 1 January 00:00 UTC. "Today" runs from 00:00 on your local date. "This year" runs from 1 January 00:00 UTC, so it is the same for every visitor.
- Global migration is zero. At world level, population change equals births minus deaths. UN figures are rounded to thousands, so the two can differ by a few hundred people a year.
- Without JavaScript the home page shows the annual figures instead of running counts.
Labels
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| VERIFIED | The fact has been checked against the cited sources. |
| ESTIMATED | Produced by a statistical model or estimation method. |
| PRELIMINARY | An initial figure published by an official or reliable body. |
| UNCERTAIN | Disputed, or the evidence is insufficient. |
| PROJECTED | An official projection for the current or a future year. |
Labels attach to individual fields. A war's dates can be verified while its death toll stays uncertain.
Datasets
| Dataset | Version | Source | Coverage | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global births and deaths per year global_births_deaths | v1.0.0 | WPP 2024 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division | 1950–2027 estimates to 2023 | CC BY 3.0 IGO |
| Global population, 1 January and 1 July global_population | v1.0.0 | WPP 2024 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division | 1950–2027 estimates to 2023 | CC BY 3.0 IGO |
| Curated historical events historical_events | v1.0.0 | Curated 2026-11-15 Multiple; see the sources field of each event | 42 events | Editorial text: CC BY 4.0; facts cited to their publishers |
| Life expectancy at birth, World and UN geographic regions life_expectancy | v1.0.0 | WPP 2024 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division | 1950–2026 estimates to 2023 | CC BY 3.0 IGO |
| Global deaths per year mortality_trend | v1.0.0 | WPP 2024 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division | 1950–2026 estimates to 2023 | CC BY 3.0 IGO |
Each dataset is a versioned JSON file with a manifest recording the source file URL, its SHA-256 checksum, the retrieval date and the ETL commit. The site reads only the pinned versions.
Causes of death: IHME Global Burden of Disease 2023 is the chosen source (WHO Global Health Estimates 2021 as fallback). Figures are not yet published here; the page links to IHME's own tool. Cause-of-death totals come from a separate model and differ from UN totals.
Source notes
- WPP 2024, World, 1989: the file's population change (93,075,576) exceeds births minus deaths (93,070,769) by 4,807 with net migration of zero. We publish the UN figures unchanged and note the gap here.
- WPP 2024 had an interim update on 19 January 2026 that revised Togo only. The checksum of the file used is in each manifest.
Editorial policy
- Events need at least one authoritative source; wars, famines and mass violence need at least two from different publishers.
- Neutral wording. No rankings of tragedies, no adjectives of scale, no personal details of ordinary victims, no graphic images.
- Different counting bases (direct, excess, military, civilian) are never added together; each figure states what it counts.
- Ongoing conflicts and events from the last two years are not in the timeline.
- This Day in History matches your local date to an event's start, end or commemoration date, earliest year first. Events known only to the year or month are not matched. If nothing falls on your date, the nearest event within three days is shown, then a statistic.
Licences and credits
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. CC BY 3.0 IGO.
- Event facts are cited to their publishers in each timeline entry.
- Charts: Apache ECharts. Site: Astro.
Changelog
- global_births_deaths v1.0.0: Initial release
- global_population v1.0.0: Initial release
- historical_events v1.0.0: Initial release
- life_expectancy v1.0.0: Initial release
- mortality_trend v1.0.0: Initial release
Corrections
No corrections yet. Every correction will be listed here with the date, the old and new value, the reason and the source.
Found an error? Email corrections@death.observer. We aim to check every report within 7 days.